Value Investing In Uncertain Times

内容

Benjamin Graham — Warren Buffett's mentor — taught that one was to stay invested, even during times of war or periods of extreme uncertainty.

Benjamin Graham

On Uncertainty

"There is some comfort to be gleaned from the last 57 years. Through all their vicissitudes and casualties, as earth-shaking as they were unforeseen, it remained true that sound investment principles produced generally sound results. We must act on the assumption that they will continue to do so."

Benjamin Graham, Introduction (1973): The Intelligent Investor.

"Just because of the uncertainties of the future the investor cannot afford to put all his funds into one basket—neither in the bond basket, despite the unprecedentedly high returns that bonds have recently offered; nor in the stock basket, despite the prospect of continuing inflation."

Benjamin Graham, Chapter 2: The Investor and Inflation, The Intelligent Investor.

Graham does suggest investing more of one’s portfolio in bonds in a high interest-rate bull-market environment.

On War

"Since war and inflation are inseparable, paper money and securities payable in specific amounts of paper money would seem to offer less financial or basic protection than soundly chosen common stocks, representing ownership of tangible, productive property."

Benjamin Graham & David Dodd, Preface (1951): The Intelligent Investor.

"As it happens, the World War II period and the postwar boom were more beneficial to the smaller concerns than to the larger ones, because then the normal competition for sales was suspended and the former could expand sales and profit margins more spectacularly. "

Benjamin Graham, Chapter 15: Stock Selection for the Enterprising Investor, The Intelligent Investor.

Warren Buffett

Annual Meeting

Warren Buffett too has mentioned that the American market has grown through two world wars and a depression.

"Since 1942, there have been 14 Presidents – 7 Republicans and 7 Democrats. One was assassinated, and one resigned under pressure. We had recessions, panics, wars and crises, and through it all America moved ahead. In less than three of my lifetimes, back when Jefferson was 12, there was nothing here. This country really works. We will have people saying the world is ending after every election. This country has seen a six-fold increase in GDP per capita in my lifetime."

Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting (May 5, 2018).

On Ukraine - 2014

"If you’ve got a wonderful business of your own in Peoria, Illinois, why in the world would you sell it today because of what’s happening in the Ukraine? ... The same applies if you have a piece of a wonderful business or a piece of many wonderful businesses. People react too much to short-term things in the stock market."

Warren Buffett, Nightly Business Report (Mar 4, 2014).

总结
本杰明·格雷厄姆,沃伦·巴菲特的导师,强调即使在战争或极端不确定时期,投资者也应保持投资。格雷厄姆指出,尽管未来充满不确定性,稳健的投资原则仍能带来良好回报。他建议投资者不要将所有资金集中在一个篮子里,尤其是在高利率环境下,适当增加债券投资。关于战争,格雷厄姆认为,纸币和证券在经济动荡中提供的保护不如优质股票。巴菲特也提到,美国市场在经历了两次世界大战和经济萧条后依然增长。他强调,尽管面临政治和经济危机,美国经济依然向前发展,GDP在他的生命中增长了六倍。巴菲特还指出,投资者不应因短期事件而轻易出售优质企业的股份,强调长期投资的重要性。