Stocks vs Bonds or Equity vs Debt

內容

Benjamin Graham — Warren Buffett's mentor — advised keeping at least 25% of one's portfolio in bonds, even in the most attractive markets.

Staying Invested

One of the fundamental principles of Value Investing is to stay invested — either in Equity or in Debt — at all times.

As Jack Bogle so succinctly put it in the very first of his Principles for Investing:

"Invest you must. The biggest risk is the long term risk of not putting your money to work."

John Bogle, World Affairs Council of Philadelphia (1997).

Graham explained the principle in a little more detail, writing:

"But a waiting period, as such, is of no consequence to the investor. What advantage is there to him in having his money uninvested until he receives some (presumably) trust-worthy signal that the time has come to buy? He enjoys an advantage only if by waiting he succeeds in buying later at a sufficiently lower price to offset his loss of dividend income."

Benjamin Graham, Chapter 8: The Investor and Market Fluctuations, The Intelligent Investor.

25% To 75%

Graham recommended maintaining a balance between equity and debt in one's portfolio; with a minimum of 25% for one and a converse maximum of 75% for the other, depending on market conditions.

"The investor should never have less than 25% or more than 75% of his funds in common stocks, with a consequent inverse range of between 75% and 25% in bonds. There is an implication here that the standard division should be an equal one, or 50–50, between the two major investment mediums... "

Chapter 4 - General Portfolio Policy: The Defensive Investor, The Intelligent Investor

This was in addition to his recommendations on diversification and position sizing. Graham also gave precise instructions on how to compare bond yields to stock prices.

Rationale

Graham's framework is as much about behavior, as it is about numbers. Accordingly, a lot of Graham's recommended investment processes are designed to keep the investor's more dangerous instincts in check.

The process of maintaining a balance between equity and debt in one's holdings has both psychological and practical benefits for the investor.

On the one hand, such a strategy keep the investor's energies focused on the right activities; and more importantly, away from the wrong ones. On the other, it ensures a sensible outcome for the investor no matter what the future outcome of the market.

Example

One of the times when the astuteness of Graham's advice becomes most evident, is when the market drops.

A portfolio with 25% kept in bonds during a bull market, will have significant liquidity available for purchasing equities at bargain prices during a bear market.

Movie Clip

A video clip of Ryan Gosling describing the types of Bonds to avoid, from the movie The Big Short.

總結
本杰明·格雷厄姆,沃伦·巴菲特的导师,建议在投资组合中至少保持25%的债券,即使在最具吸引力的市场中也应如此。价值投资的基本原则之一是始终保持投资,无论是股票还是债务。格雷厄姆强调,投资者不应将资金闲置,等待所谓的买入信号,而应保持投资以获取收益。他建议投资者在股票和债券之间保持平衡,股票占25%至75%,债券则相应为75%至25%。这种策略不仅有助于投资者在市场波动中保持理智,还能在市场下跌时提供流动性,以便以低价购买股票。格雷厄姆的投资框架强调行为管理,旨在抑制投资者的冲动,确保无论市场未来如何,投资者都能获得合理的结果。