Benjamin Graham's Updated Intrinsic Value Formula

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V = {EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x 4.4} / Y, or Intrinsic Value = Earnings x (37½ + 8.8 G) ÷ AAA rate. All warnings that Graham gave with the original formula would apply here as well.

The Original Formula

The formula actually published by Graham is:

V = EPS x (8.5 + 2g), or

Value = Current (Normal) Earnings x (8.5 plus twice the expected annual growth rate)

Benjamin Graham, Chapter 11: Security Analysis for the Lay Investor, The Intelligent Investor.

The Updated Formula

However, some sources refer to the following as Benjamin Graham's updated Intrinsic Value formula:

V = {EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x 4.4} / Y

where:

V: Intrinsic Value of the company, EPS: the company's last 12-month earnings per share, 8.5: the appropriate P-E ratio for a no-growth company as proposed by Graham, g: the company's long-term (five years) earnings growth estimate, 4.4: the average yield of high-grade corporate bonds, Y: the current yield on 20 year AAA corporate bonds.

Source

Given below is a screenshot from a transcript of the interview — The Decade 1965-1974: Its significance for Financial Analysts [PDF] — where Graham supposedly makes a passing reference to the adjustment.

Intrinsic Value = Earnings x (37½ + 8.8 G) ÷ AAA rate

A few paragraphs later, he can again be seen expressing several misgivings about such simplistic formulas.

By my own rather strict quantitative criteria, Firestone would pass the financial strength test by a modest margin.

Particularly note that part where Graham says "By my own rather strict quantitative criteria". Here he is referring to his stock selection framework published in The Intelligent Investor, which includes elaborate tests for financial strength and other factors.

The Intelligent Investor

Lastly, please note that this updated formula is not from a published source. Here's what Graham actually writes on the topic of interest rates along with the original formula in The Intelligent Investor:

We should point out that any “scientific,” or at least reasonably dependable, stock evaluation based on anticipated future results must take future interest rates into account. A given schedule of expected earnings, or dividends, would have a smaller present value if we assume a higher than if we assume a lower interest structure. Such assumptions have always been difficult to make with any degree of confidence, and the recent violent swings in long-term interest rates render forecasts of this sort almost presumptuous. Hence we have retained our old formula above, simply because no new one would appear more plausible.

Benjamin Graham, Chapter 11: Security Analysis for the Lay Investor, The Intelligent Investor.

So again, Graham never intended this formula — or any of its variations — to be used for stock selection by his readers. He was simply advising users of all such simplistic valuation methods to include all the requisite tests for financial soundness and a Margin of Safety.

Video: Ben Graham Formula

Resumir
本文讨论了本杰明·格雷厄姆的内在价值公式及其更新版本。原始公式为V = EPS x (8.5 + 2g),其中EPS为每股收益,g为预期年增长率。更新公式为V = {EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x 4.4} / Y,Y为20年AAA公司债券的当前收益率。尽管有些来源将其称为格雷厄姆的更新公式,但格雷厄姆本人在《聪明的投资者》中强调,任何基于未来结果的股票评估都必须考虑未来利率,并指出简单的公式可能无法准确反映股票的真实价值。他警告读者在使用这些公式时,必须进行全面的财务健康测试,并保持安全边际。因此,格雷厄姆并不建议读者仅依赖这些公式进行股票选择。