Jonathan Mayo
Roki Sasaki, the ace Japanese right-hander, is poised to join a Major League Baseball organization before the 2025 season.
The Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki's Nippon Professional Baseball team, announced that they will post the 23-year-old. Under the Collective Bargaining Agreement, because he's under 25, Sasaki will qualify as an international amateur free agent.
Here's everything to know about who he is and what that means.
Sasaki has the chance to be perhaps the greatest pitcher ever to come from NPB (the highest level of baseball in Japan) and pitch for a Major League Baseball team. In four seasons with Chiba Lotte, Sasaki has compiled a 2.02 ERA, 11.4 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 rate while allowing just 6.0 hits per nine. He made a big splash on the international stage by striking out 11 over 7 2/3 innings in the 2023 World Baseball Classic on a Japan staff that included Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
The 6-foot-2 Sasaki is a future frontline starter with the potential to have three plus power pitches. He can run his fastball up to 102 mph, a four-seamer that averaged almost 99 mph in 2023, an average that did dip to 96.8 mph in 2024. He complements the heater with an absolutely filthy splitter (88.2 mph avg in 2024) that generated a whiff rate north of 57 percent this past season. He kills spin with it, and it falls off the table. His slider (83.6 mph avg in ‘24) also misses a lot of bats, with a 40.7 percent whiff rate last year. He has an ideal projectable lean and athletic frame and throws a ton of strikes, though he’s control over command right now. He has No. 1 starter potential, though there are some questions about his velocity dipping on all three of his pitches from 2023 to 2024.
Details of the posting system can be found here. In a nutshell, any player in NPB who wants to become an international free agent before accumulating nine years of experience can ask to be posted for MLB clubs by his Japanese team. Under the current rules, the release fee Chiba Lotte can get would be 20 percent of the total guaranteed value of the contract Sasaki signs. For contracts with a total guaranteed value of $25 million or less, the release fee will be 20 percent of the total guaranteed value of the contract. We know that Sasaki's contract will fall under that $25 million threshold because …
At age 23, Sasaki is subject to international bonus pool money restrictions, as he’s under 25 and has less than six seasons of service time in a foreign league recognized by MLB. So we won’t be seeing a Yamamoto type of deal here (12 years, $325 million). This is similar to when Ohtani came here in 2017, when he received a bonus of $2.3 million from the Angels.
All 30 MLB clubs have 45 days to negotiate with a player after he is posted. If no agreement is reached in that timeframe, the player returns to his NPB club for the coming season. He cannot be posted again until the following offseason.
Depending on when he is officially signed, his contract would fall under either the 2024 international signing period, which ends on Dec. 15, or the 2025 period, which opens on Jan. 15. If he's posted before Dec. 2, he could only sign during the 2024 period since the 45-day negotiating window would expire before the '25 signing period begins. If he were to be posted between Dec. 2-15, he could sign during either period, though he'd only have until Dec. 15 to negotiate a deal for the '24 period.
Where Sasaki decides to sign will not be based on who can give him the biggest bonus now. While teams are not permitted to talk about long-term extensions when negotiating with a posted player, there will no doubt be some calculus about future earning potential and opportunities to compete for World Series titles.
The Dodgers check off a lot of the boxes and have to be considered frontrunners to land Sasaki. They have the most bonus pool money left in the 2024 period and, given the long-term contracts they gave to both Ohtani and Yamamoto, it’s not hard for Sasaki and his team to project a long extension after the 2025 season.
Here are the top five teams based on remaining 2024 international bonus pool:
Dodgers: $2,502,500Orioles: $2,147,300Yankees: $1,487,200Giants: $1,247,500
Red Sox: $990,000
If he waits until the 2025 signing period to come to terms, all 30 teams’ bonus pools would theoretically reset, but depending on teams’ plans for the upcoming period, the landscape might not be that different. Teams do have the potential to trade for additional bonus pool funds that could help augment any bonus offer.
Here’s the complete list of remaining international bonus pools for the 2024 signing period:
Dodgers: $2,502,500Orioles: $2,147,300Yankees: $1,487,200Giants: $1,247,500Red Sox: $990,000Rockies: $857,800White Sox: $740,000Cardinals: $672,200Tigers: $620,000D-backs: $559,300Royals: $462,300Marlins: $337,500Mets: $314,000Astros: $287,500Cubs: $237,200Angels: $212,200Guardians: $114,300Nationals: $112,500Brewers: $110,500Pirates: $89,800Phillies: $42,200Reds: $35,000Athletics: $33,000Mariners: $19,500Twins: $17,500Blue Jays: $12,200Padres: $2,200Rays: $0Braves: $0
Rangers: $0
Here’s the complete list of international bonus pools for the 2025 signing period:
$7,555,500
CIN, DET, MIA, MIL, MIN, OAK, SEA, TB
$6,908,600
ARI, BAL, CLE, COL, KC, PIT
$6,261,600
ATL, BOS, CHC, CWS, LAA, NYM, NYY, PHI, SD, TEX, TOR, WSH