In his introductory speech, Viktor Orbán stated that thanks to the peace mission, communication channels have opened up between the hostile parties. The Prime Minister believes that fermentation has begun, as evidenced by the talks between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky, or even the US-Russian foreign ministerial phone call.
The Ukrainians have already caught on, now it's time for the Europeans to come to their senses.
Orbán Viktor spoke about three major themes during his Tusványos speech, all three revolving around war: the war itself and its interpretation, the post-war period, and Hungary's role in the future.
According to his account, the war revealed the real European power relations. The war presented Europe with a two-sided decision: remain in the "world of appearances" or descend into reality. The Hungarian Prime Minister outlined his thoughts in bullet points:
- Both sides suffer brutal losses in the war, yet they do not want to reconcile.
Both parties think they can win, and they are fueled by their own perceived or real truth, so they do not want to negotiate peace. Persistence leads straight to escalation, and peace can only be brought from the outside.
- The United States has declared China its biggest rival, yet it is waging a proxy war against Russia.
The United States made a big mistake by continuously accusing China of helping Russia. This action is pushing two major powers into one camp.
- Ukraine's power, resilience exceeds all expectations
Since 1991, many Ukrainian refugees have fled the country, corruption and oligarchs have dominated the country. Nevertheless, unprecedented resistance was shown in the war. Viktor Orbán claims that this is due to the fact that the Ukrainian people have found a new perspective for themselves: a sense of belonging to the West. Ukraine demands that their new vocation be officially recognized internationally.
- Russia is different than what we have seen, stronger
The economic viability is much more outstanding than anyone would have thought. The sanctions did not have the impact Europe expected. This is due to the fact that since 2014, they have been working on creating a more resilient economy since the weak sanctions introduced back then.
- European politics has collapsed
Orbán Viktor believes that Europe is following the democratic policy of the United States, even at the cost of "self-harm". As an example, the Hungarian Prime Minister mentioned the explosion of the Nord Stream.
amelyet az Egyesült Államok terrorcselekményének titulált.
The European political dynamics provided by the Berlin-Paris axis have ceased, replaced by a policy led by London-Warsaw-Kiev and the Baltic states. Warsaw has dubbed it as its old plan to become America's number one stronghold, while weakening Russia, which holds it in check, and outperforming the German economy.
Orbán Viktor strongly criticized Poland's current politics, power ambitions, and withdrawal from the V4 in his speech.
The West saw itself as a kind of global benchmark. The political direction changed, the West expected to take a stand against Russia on a moral basis. However, this did not succeed, Turkey, India, China did not take a stand.
- The current biggest problem in the world is the weakness of the West
Russia is too large for its population, and it is under hyper-rational leadership
- declared the Prime Minister. Orbán finds what Russia is doing understandable and predictable, unlike Western politics.
- Understanding the West in the Light of War
Orbán believes that our real task is to try to understand the West again, because from our perspective, we see it as irrational. He sees the difference in that Hungary is based on the nation-state, while Europe rejects this.
Orbán Viktor says a new world is coming after the war, and everyone must understand this and prepare for it in time.
The Prime Minister says this will be a change unprecedented in 500 years.
The change is not happening in a peaceful way now, the new center of power will not be in the West. The Western world is not facing a challenge from within now, but from outside, so this will be a "world system change".
This is a process starting from Asia, so in the coming decades, or even centuries, Asia will be the dominant power center. Asia has the demographic, technological, and capital advantage. Military power will be balanced, the most advanced space research will be there, as well as medical science, the best universities and research institutes, the largest companies and stock exchanges.
There are initiatives in this regard, such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
On the opposite pole, Donald Trump and his vice president were nominated, who are capable of outlining a national strategic vision in 12 years (4 for Trump, 8 for the vice president). The goal of the USA is to strengthen and rebuild America – this also means 'withdrawal from the world' (isolationism). They will pay the price for all this, including security, and they are willing to give up democracy export as well.
America first, this is how Donald Trump thinks
- said Viktor Orbán.
Europe has two options: one is the 'open-air museum', which lacks developmental dynamics, while America falls under the old continent.
**Another option is Emmanuel Macron's vision - 'strategic autonomy'.
We have to enter the competition of world system change in Hungarian.
The Prime Minister believes that the foundation of this is to increase Europe's attractiveness to capital, to create major infrastructure developments. There is a need for a European military alliance, a strong defense industry, research, and innovation. A new agreement with Russia, and part of this is that
Ukraine must be denied NATO and EU membership, in exchange Kiev must be content with internationally guaranteed security in treaties.
Orbán Viktor believes that Hungary must be prepared for change, as we can view the new world order as a threat or as an opportunity for the country.
If there is danger, we must pursue a policy of protection, we must swim together with the United States and the European Union
However, if we define a development path, we must be proactive and pursue a specific national policy. Viktor Orbán stated that he is a supporter of the latter.
The Prime Minister stated in this regard that the developments taking place in the United States are favorable for Hungary. Budapest could even receive a political-economic offer from the United States that could be better than EU membership - however, the Prime Minister does not believe in this.
We have already received the offer from China, the conditions are also given there
- the Prime Minister declared. China may be far away, but Hungary is important to them, and its membership in the European Union is valuable.
According to the Prime Minister, the Union has lost the war: the United States withdraws, and Europe is unable to finance either the continuation or the reconstruction. It will be forced to forgive some of the loans it has given so far, essentially making Europe pay for the war.
This, however, has a direct consequence that the European Union will acknowledge that the Central European countries will remain as nation-states with their own foreign policies as members of the community.
Overall, I can say that the necessary conditions for independent national politics are given from America, Asia, and Europe.
The Prime Minister also stated that there is already a "Hungarian grand strategy" that declares Hungary's role in "world system change". Its development began in 2022, but there is still room for improvement because its "language is too intellectual". According to Viktor Orbán, another six months are needed before the government can present a grand strategy that is understandable to everyone.
Part of this 'grand strategy' is to
- Connectivity must be established, we must not get stuck in any corner of the now-dividing world economy. As a consequence, the country cannot engage in any war against the East or trade conflicts. * The second point is the protection of sovereignty, also on economic grounds. According to the Prime Minister, an economic pyramid has been built in the country in recent years: at the top are the 'national champions', its base consists of internationally competitive medium-sized companies (of which there are 15,000), and domestic market-producing companies. The current economy is capable of providing the foundation of sovereignty, with competitive large companies in every significant sector. * It is also necessary to reduce the national debt, from 50-60% to 30%, but this can only be achieved by the peace budget – by 2025. The country should play a role as a regional creditor. * A solid and flexible Hungarian society is needed. The Prime Minister believes that demographic decline must be prevented. Although the latter started well, it has stalled, so it needs to be revitalized. Therefore, as part of the peace budget, it is necessary to double the tax benefits for children and extend the benefits beyond the borders. The Prime Minister believes that the Hungarian village system must be preserved, the society based on work must be maintained, and mega-cities should not be created.
Source of cover image: MTI Photo/Veres Nándor